Now that Irene has passed, it's time for a week of second-guessing everyone from the forecasters to the public officials who designed the response, followed by a hearty round of recriminations.
Hurricane forecasting is right up there with snowfall forecasting as an inexact process. It's kind of miraculous (and what I mean by miraculous is the application of almost indescribably complex science) that they have any idea where the hurricane is going. Shoot, I'm sitting at the breakfast table and I don't even know where I'm going next.
So what's a local official to do? This is yet another application of error-based decision-making, which is one of my favorite tools. Since you don't know what's going to happen, assume you make the wrong decision and weigh the consequences. In a case like this, the consequences of not evacuating when it's necessary are far worse than if you do evacuate and it's not necessary. I'm sympathetic to those who had their vacations ruined, but when circumstances are potentially catastrophic, it pays to overreact.
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