Typing

I'm sure in the wake of the apparent hoaxical closing of the LA school system, there will be criticism for the disruption the closing caused to the many thousands whose children attend the school It's not fair to do that though unless you at a minimum weigh the whole Type I versus Type II error matrix.

A Type I error would be to close the schools because of a hoax and cause massive inconvenience (and I'm sure financial harm to some). In that that case the Type II error would be to let people go to school when there really were bombs there.

Which error would you rather make? To do this intelligently, you need to weight the probabilities involved, but when you make a binary choice like that (close or don't close are the only alternatives) you have to look at both sides and try to be smart.

I actually use this kind of decision-making all the time If I have a 50-50 choice and I can't decide between the right choices, I assume that I'm going to be wrong and decide which way I'd rather screw up. It's proved a good guide for me; it's one of the few actual life skills I learned in business school.