Two nights ago, pitcher J.A. Happ was hit in the head by a batted ball really hard and had to be hospitalized. Fortunately, he seems to be fine. So now the discussion turns to how can we prevent these kinds of injuries. Especially since this is the second such incident in the past 3 years. Clearly something must be done!
I don't want to seem callous here, but there are about 2600 major league baseball games every year, and about 300 pitches thrown in each. So over 3 years, that's 2600 x 300 x 3 = 2,340,000 pitches thrown. And on two of those, people got pretty badly hurt. So on any given pitch, the chances of your being hit in the head by a batted ball and seriously injured is 1 in 1,170,000, or 0.00009%. I'll take those odds any time. I'm more at risk of serious injury making scrambled eggs or taking a shower or driving to school.
People internalize risk in funny ways. It's like being afraid to fly. There hasn't been a commercial aircraft fatality in the US in four years. There was probably a fatal accident on the Schuylkill last week. Is a pitcher in a vulnerable position? And should we make it as safe as possible, within reason? Of course, but the data would suggest that when he throws his next pitch, the ball will end up somewhere other than against his skull 1,169,999 out of 1,170,000 times. So while it may be news, it's not exactly a crisis.
Friday, May 10, 2013
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